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National and state forecasts

Interpretation of forecasts

• Reported and forecasted new COVID-19 hospital admissions as of June 11, 2025. This week, 7 modeling groups contributed 8 forecasts that were eligible for inclusion in the ensemble forecasts for at least one jurisdiction. Contributing teams are listed below.
• Ensemble forecasts combine forecasts from all submitted models into one forecast. These forecasts have been among the most accurate for previous COVID-19 forecasting efforts but may not reliably predict rapid changes in disease trends.
• The figure shows the number of new laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 hospital admissions reported in the United States each week from August 8, 2020 through June 7, 2025 and forecasted new COVID-19 hospital admissions per week for this week and the next 2 weeks through June 28, 2025. The colored areas on the graph show prediction intervals, which indicate the bounds of uncertainty around the forecast estimates.  
• The forecasted hospital admission rates (for both median and prediction intervals) use population estimates as a population denominator for the state. We note that the denominator for rates may not capture the exact catchment populations of the hospitals in each state, but rates provide a rough adjustment for population size, allowing comparison across states with different population sizes.
• Hospitals are required to report daily laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations to the National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN). Review Hospital Respiratory Data for additional details on this guidance. Historical data from NHSN are not shown from April 27-October 31, 2024, due to the pause in mandatory reporting.
• The following jurisdictions had <80% of hospitals reporting for the most recent week: Alaska, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Colorado, District of Columbia, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Iowa, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Maine, Missouri, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, New York, Oklahoma, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, Texas, United States, Vermont, and Wyoming. Lower reporting rates could impact forecast validity. Percent of hospitals reporting is calculated based on the number of active hospitals reporting complete data to NHSN for a given reporting week.
• Forecast submissions are collected and stored in the GitHub repository, which also contains more detailed information about the forecast data and submission process.

Contributing teams and models

Individual model websites are linked where available.

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Models not included in the CovidHub ensemble